Concert promoters expect good things in 2012
And that's not the half of it.
"There were enough buyers in queue online that we probably could have added two more Coachella weekends and another Stagecoach weekend," said Randy Phillips, president of AEG Live, the concert promotion giant that works in conjunction with Goldenvoice to put Coachella and its country cousin, Stagecoach, on each year in Indio.PHOTOS: The Boss, Waters, Gaga and Bieber hit the circuit in 2012
Music fans are already exhibiting a healthy appetite for concert tickets in the first month of 2012, which is putting the year on track to be another strong one at the box office and perhaps a record-setting one.
It's a reflection, concert industry veterans say, of an improving economy as well as a powerhouse slate of performers who will be touring this year. Those include such veteran rock acts as Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band, Roger Waters with "The Wall," the reunited Van Halen, the Beach Boys and Fleetwood Mac, teen pop stars Lady Gaga and Justin Bieber and country music heavy hitters Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw teaming for a duo stadium tour. And there are the widely anticipated possibilities of the Rolling Stones and Madonna hitting the road again.
"We can foresee this being a record year for revenue certainly, and possibly even for attendance," said Gary Bongiovanni, editor of the concert-industry tracking magazine Pollstar.
Stagecoach, on each year in Indio.PHOTOS: The Boss, Waters, Gaga and Bieber hit the circuit in 2012
The only thing that could make concert promoters salivate more would be the prospect of U2, which posted the highest-grossing tours of last year and 2009, mounting a new tour. But that's not in the cards since the Irish quartet recently played the final shows of its wildly successful "360 Tour."
"2012 will be a noncampaign year for U2," group manager Paul McGuinness confirmed to The Times. "As I have sometimes said: You can'! t expect people to notice a big loud noise unless it's preceded by a silence."
It will be anything but silence outside U2's camp, however, especially if the Stones make good on numerous reports of a tour.
And any year with a Stones tour in it figures to put records for box office revenue within reach.
For most of the last seven years, the Top 10 grossing tours in North America combined to generate between $630 million and $700 million. In 2009, however, when U2 launched the "360 Tour," that total jumped to $773 million, while in the two years that the Stones rolled across this continent 2005 and 2006 on the group's "A Bigger Bang" tour, business pumped to $810 million and $793 million, respectively. U2 also was a key part of the bonanza in 2005, the only year during that seven-year span in which two acts grossed more than $100 million each in North America.
Additionally, because Mick Jagger and Keith Richards are both 68, and drummer Charlie Watts is 70, many are expecting that the next Stones tour may well be the group's last, at least on the scale of what the venerable band has undertaken historically. The prospect of a farewell tour figures to contribute to a ticket-feeding frenzy that could lead to higher prices and new heights of box office revenue.
But even if the Stones don't go out this year, or push a tour back until 2013, "We're really going to be blessed with riches," Bongiovanni said. "It's going to be great year with a wide array of artists out there working."
Celine Dion and Elton John will continue their popular Las Vegas residencies at Caesars Palace, and John is supplementing those shows with additional concert dates. And beyond the heritage acts that typically turn in the highest-grossing tours year in and year out, a number of more recently minted stars have proved capable of matching their predecessors, including acts that have tours planned for 2012 such as Lady Gaga and Justin Bieber.
Taylor Swift, however, is expected to take most of this year off after posting the second highest-grossing tour in North America last year with her "Speak Now" shows, which came in behind U2. Katy Perry also is laying low this year, but British soul singer Adele is anticipated to return to the road in what would be one of the year's hottest tickets if the throat problems that sidelined her partway through last year are resolved.
Bon Jovi, another act that typically makes the upper reaches in rankings of the concert world's biggest moneymakers, isn't expected to tour widely in 2012. And the Eagles are playing most of their 2012 dates outside the U.S.
"I think it'll be a steady year," AEG's Phillips said. "If people are saying it's going to be a banner year, to me that would have to be 15% to 20% more than last year. I think there will be a slight uptick because the economy is getting stronger, it's an election year there are a lot of reasons that I think business will pick up. My projections are for maybe a 3% increase. But that certainly beats [revenue] going down."
One issue on which promoters and other observers agree: the importance of avoiding significant ticket price increases.
"There is so much pressure on touring now for an artist as a reve! nue stre am, since digital music hasn't yet filled the gap left by the decline in album and single sales," Phillips said. "So there is pressure to overcharge and to overplay on a tour cycle. I'm finding that's starting to moderate a little bit. People feel they could be killing the goose that laid the golden egg."
Stagecoach, on each year in Indio.PHOTOS: The Boss, Waters, Gaga and Bieber hit the circuit in 2012